Probabilistic creep with the Wilshire–Cano–Stewart model

Abstract Creep behavior is susceptible to uncertainty. Replicated creep data for steel can exhibit logarithm decades of uncertainty, which necessitates the development probabilistic models reliability‐based design. The deterministic Wilshire – Cano Stewart (WCS) model transformed into a deformation, damage, and rupture prediction via injecting uncertainty test conditions, pre‐existing material constants. WCS calibrated replicated quintuplicate from “single heat” 304 stainless steel. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with Metropolis–Hastings (MH) algorithm employed introduce sources uncertainties probability distribution functions (pdfs). predictions encapsulate most experimental outliers across isostresses‐isotherms. Interpolative extrapolative assessments reveal that minimum‐creep‐strain‐rate (MCSR) stress (SR) are consistent isotherms. captures range single heat using short‐term data.